The numbers are in from the 2025 Black Friday shopping holiday, and it’s raising eyebrows on where American consumers actually stand on the economy, which is battling inflation, CNN reports. 

Data released from Mastercard SpendingPulse shows retail sales on the busiest shopping day of the year increased 4.1% in comparison to 2024. The numbers were even higher online, with shoppers spending $11.8 billion — a 9.1% jump from 2024 — according to Adobe Analytics. 

However, economists say the numbers don’t account for rising goods costs due to inflation, so The Pinpoint Press economy writer Rick Newman says that, in reality, spending could be flat. “We have 3% inflation, so maybe (the 4.1% increase in spending) is a real increase of just 1% or so, which is not that much of an increase,” Newman said. National consumer expert Claudia Lombana agrees, given data from the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book.” 

The collection of anecdotes surrounding the economy revealed that consumer spending for low- and middle-income consumers is declining. But the upper class and big spenders haven’t slowed down, including spending on luxury items and travel. “The ones that have higher income are spending at will, but those who are less affluent are budgeting,” Lombana revealed. 

The concept is part of the K-shaped economy, where higher earners see a boost in their earnings from stock market investments and home valuations, helping them to use hefty paychecks to shop. For earners on the lower end, they seem to live paycheck to paycheck and seek out discounted deals. 

According to Newsweek, the White House is looking at these numbers as evidence of a thriving economy; however, others see signals of weak consumer confidence and the starting line of financial hardships revving up as consumers continue to shop. Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity, and the holiday season is often seen as an important barometer of how financially stressed shoppers are coping with the current economic climate. 

Job security is another reason why economists don’t believe this year’s Black Friday uptick matches the reality that shoppers are facing. Several struggle to know where their next paycheck is coming from, as jobs are scarce and the cost of necessities like groceries and heat continues to rise. “I think those people are going to be pinching pennies this holiday season,” Newman suggested, highlighting the need to be slightly frugal with gift purchases this holiday season.

It’s not just consumers who are suffering. Some major retailers are also struggling to meet shoppers where they are — caught between customer satisfaction cost-wise and President Donald Trump’s war on tariffs. The National Retail Federation says 85% of consumers expect higher prices because of Trump’s tariffs, causing consumers to be more selective about where they shop.

Economy-savvy retailers like Walmart and T.J. Maxx are benefiting, while Target and Bath & Body Works have struggled this holiday season.

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